South Asia has become the stage for what analysts are calling the world’s first drone war between nuclear-armed rivals.
On Thursday, India accused Pakistan of orchestrating a series of drone and missile strikes targeting three military installations in Indian territory and in Indian-administered Kashmir. Islamabad, however, promptly rejected the claims, calling them baseless.
In a counterclaim, Pakistan reported that it had downed 25 Indian drones in a matter of hours—while New Delhi has yet to issue an official response. Defense analysts warn that this emerging pattern of drone-versus-drone warfare signals a dangerous escalation in the long-standing hostility between the two countries, moving beyond traditional artillery exchanges to high-tech, unmanned confrontations.
As international actors like the United States and other global powers appeal for calm, the region stands at a precarious tipping point. Drones—stealthy, remote-operated, and easily deniable—are reshaping the battlefield dynamics along the disputed border.
“The Indo-Pak conflict is clearly shifting into a new era of drone-centric warfare—where invisible surveillance and unmanned precision strikes could drive either measured restraint or rapid escalation,” said Jahara Matisek, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College, in a statement to the BBC. “In South Asia’s contested skies, the power that best adapts to drone technology won’t just observe the battlefield—it will define it.”
Since Wednesday morning, Pakistan has reported that Indian airstrikes and cross-border shelling have resulted in the deaths of 36 people and left 57 others injured across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Meanwhile, the Indian Army claims that at least 16 civilians have died due to intense shelling from the Pakistani side.
India maintains that its recent missile offensive was in direct response to a deadly militant attack on Indian tourists in Pahalgam last month—an incident New Delhi attributes to Pakistan-backed groups. Islamabad, however, firmly denies any involvement in the assault.
In a statement released Thursday, Pakistan’s military claimed it had successfully shot down 25 Indian drones over several major cities, including Karachi, Lahore, and Rawalpindi. The unmanned aircraft—identified by Pakistani sources as Israeli-made Harop drones—were reportedly brought down using a mix of electronic jamming and kinetic defense systems.
On the other side, India asserted that it had neutralized multiple Pakistani air defense installations, including a key radar site in Lahore—an allegation that Pakistan’s military has categorically denied.
Laser-guided missiles, drones, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have quickly become central to modern military strategies, revolutionizing the precision and efficiency of operations on the battlefield. These technologies can transmit coordinates for airstrikes or, if equipped with laser designation systems, directly target enemy positions, enabling swift, precise engagement.
Drones, in particular, serve multiple roles in contemporary warfare. They can be used as decoys or for the suppression of enemy air defenses by flying into contested airspace to trigger radar emissions, which can then be targeted by other munitions such as loitering drones or anti-radiation missiles. “This tactic is something both Ukraine and Russia are employing in their ongoing conflict. The dual-purpose role of drones—both as direct strike tools and as triggers for further attacks—makes them a powerful force multiplier, weakening enemy defenses without risking manned aircraft,” explains Professor Jahara Matisek, a military expert at the U.S. Naval War College.
India’s drone capabilities largely rely on Israeli-made reconnaissance UAVs such as the IAI Searcher and Heron, alongside loitering munitions like the Harpy and Harop. These drones act as missiles in addition to performing surveillance, capable of carrying out autonomous reconnaissance and precision strikes. The Harop, in particular, signifies a shift toward precision-targeted operations, underscoring the increasing reliance on loitering munitions in modern warfare.
The Heron is widely regarded as India’s “high-altitude eyes in the sky,” serving both peacetime surveillance and combat roles. The IAI Searcher Mk II, designed for frontline operations, boasts an impressive endurance of up to 18 hours, a range of 300 km (186 miles), and a ceiling of 7,000 meters (23,000 feet).
While India’s combat drone fleet is still considered relatively modest, a recent $4 billion deal with the U.S. to acquire 31 MQ-9B Predator drones marks a significant leap forward in its strike capabilities. These advanced drones can operate for up to 40 hours and reach altitudes of 40,000 feet, dramatically expanding India’s operational range.
India is also pursuing swarm drone tactics, deploying large numbers of smaller UAVs to overwhelm enemy air defenses, allowing higher-value drones to penetrate and execute strategic strikes.
Pakistan, on the other hand, boasts an “extensive and diverse” drone fleet, with both indigenous and imported systems, according to Ejaz Haider, a Lahore-based defense analyst. Pakistan’s inventory is said to include “over a thousand drones,” featuring platforms from China, Turkey, and domestic manufacturers. Among the notable models are the Chinese CH-4, the Turkish Bayraktar Akinci, and Pakistan’s own Burraq and Shahpar drones. In addition, Pakistan has developed its own loitering munitions, further strengthening its strike capabilities.
Ejaz Haider, a defense analyst based in Lahore, stated that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has been incorporating unmanned aerial systems into its operations for nearly a decade. A significant focus of this effort is the development of “loyal wingman” drones—unmanned aerial vehicles designed to work in coordination with manned aircraft, enhancing overall combat effectiveness.
Professor Jahara Matisek emphasizes that Israel’s technical support, particularly in supplying advanced drones like the Harop and Heron, has been crucial for India’s growing drone capabilities. Conversely, Pakistan’s reliance on platforms from Turkey and China reflects the ongoing arms race between the two nations as they ramp up their technological capabilities to match each other’s advancements.
While the recent exchange of drone strikes between India and Pakistan marks a notable escalation in their longstanding rivalry, experts point out that this shift is fundamentally different from the drone-centric warfare seen in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In that conflict, drones are central to military strategies, with both sides deploying thousands of UAVs for a variety of purposes, including surveillance, targeting, and direct attacks.
“Using drones in this context, rather than fighter jets or heavy missiles, offers a more restrained military option,” said Manoj Joshi, an Indian defense analyst. “Drones are less heavily armed than manned aircraft, so in a way, this is a more cautious approach. However, if these drone exchanges are merely a prelude to a larger aerial campaign, the situation could escalate very quickly.”
Haider adds that the recent drone activity in Jammu appears to be more of a tactical response to immediate provocations rather than a large-scale retaliatory operation by Pakistan.
“A true retaliatory strike against India would involve a more extensive and forceful operation. It would likely deploy multiple platforms—both manned and unmanned—and target a wider array of objectives. Such a move would aim to deliver a decisive blow, signaling a major escalation in the conflict, far beyond the current back-and-forth exchanges,” Haider explained.
While drones have fundamentally changed the dynamics of warfare in Ukraine, their role in the India-Pakistan conflict remains more limited, serving a largely symbolic function for now, according to experts. Both nations continue to rely on their manned air forces, launching missile strikes at each other as well.
“The drone warfare we’re witnessing may be short-lived; it could merely be the opening phase of a much larger conflict,” said Manoj Joshi, an Indian defense analyst. “This could either lead to a de-escalation or further intensify the situation—both outcomes remain possible. We are at a critical juncture, and the path forward remains uncertain.”
India appears to be integrating drones into its precision-strike strategy, using them to engage targets from a distance without the need to send manned aircraft across contested borders. However, this shift raises important questions about the broader implications of drone warfare in such a high-stakes environment.
“Drones effectively lower the political and operational threshold for military action, offering nations the ability to surveil and strike while minimizing the risks of escalation,” explained Professor Matisek. “However, they also introduce new escalation dynamics. Every drone downed, every radar system disabled, has the potential to spark a larger confrontation in a region where tensions are already high and both countries possess nuclear arsenals.”
