In the ongoing war between two arch-rivals, Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the death and destruction and the utter defiance of international law by both sides under the garb of ‘self-defence’ have pushed the entire West Asian region and the world to the edge. Their conception of one another as an existential threat had played out mostly clandestinely in the past. However, in the last year and a half, their confrontation has been more direct, with the latest showdown shaping up to be a fight to the finish. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already declared that he intends to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat through direct attacks on Iranian military and nuclear facilities. It has also proven its aerial and intelligence superiority in killing most of the military leadership in Iran and its top-level nuclear scientists. Iran, in turn, has retaliated by causing severe damage to Israeli military and civilian infrastructure, though not in equal measure. It’s not over yet, though.
While the world is deeply concerned with this escalation, which could envelop the whole region, what US President Trump does now will be decisive. Netanyahu is keen on effecting a regime change in Iran and even eliminating its supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei – something Trump has not greenlit, as per reports. A brute, no-holds-barred approach is now shaping up this emaciated and dysfunctional global order.
Trump In A Sticky Spot
Trump has an aversion to conventional or ‘forever’ wars – at least, so it had seemed, and he had maintained, throughout his presidential campaign last year. But now, at the formal request of Israel, the US under Trump is supporting the Israeli campaign against Iran through its naval and air power.
It’s important to remember here how Trump had given 60 days to Iran to conclude the nuclear deal negotiations, the last round of which was supposed to take place in Oman on Sunday, June 15. Both sides, however, kept shifting their goalposts, especially with regard to Iran’s nuclear enrichment potential and threshold. The US insisted on Iran conceding that it would not pursue any uranium enrichment, but this was not acceptable to Tehran as it would tantamount to abject surrender. To be sure, nuclear enrichment is permitted under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) for civil nuclear energy purposes.
Divisions Within
Of course, Iran possessing a nuclear weapon is out of question, and the biggest red line. In 2015, a hesitant Iran did try to cut a deal with the Western world, promising to limit its nuclear programme in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. But even that was a red line for Israel, which has insisted that Iran is on the verge of making a weapon and has material for up to nine bombs. Indications by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – whose intent and modus operandi Iran suspects – that Iran was not in compliance with the prescribed standards, added to the suspicion. Many observers in the US, including Senators and congressmen, believe that Israel wants to drag the US into its Middle East war on one pretext or the other, providing a fait accompli.
The US has also taken some extreme steps on its part. Two days ago, the Trump administration officially removed Colonel Nathan McCormack from his post as the Joint Chiefs of Staff, allegedly because he called Israel a “death cult” and said that America was acting as Israel’s proxy.
The MAGA Quandary
As per various surveys, as many as 64% of Republicans are not in favour of the US getting directly involved in Israel’s war against Iran. It may also not be seen favourably by his MAGA (‘Make America Great Again’) base, though at the moment, Trump doesn’t seem too concerned about this, claiming that he was the one to popularise ‘MAGA’ in the first place. He has even decried the testimony of his own colleague, the National Intelligence Authority (NIA) head, Tulsi Gabbard, which had stated that Iran was nowhere near fully developing a nuclear weapon.
Gabbard is not alone in echoing this sentiment. IAEA Director General Grossi also said recently in an interview that his agency “did not have any proof of a systematic effort to move into a nuclear weapon”. Former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt had a bolder take. “The reality is that Netanyahu attacked Iran not primarily to prevent a nuclear weapon but to prevent a nuclear agreement between the US and Iran. He was key in driving Trump to leave the original US-Iran JCPOA deal, and now wanted to prevent a new one,” Bildt said on X on June 18.
Trump’s decision at this stage is extremely critical and can change the course of this war, the region and the world. Unpredictable as he is, Trump might still consider giving Iranians and diplomacy a chance through a fast-track nuclear deal, even as Khamenei has retorted that Iranians are not the ones to surrender.
The Arabs
On the other hand, in unusual unity and camaraderie, the Arab countries, led by Saudi Arabia and other Islamic countries, including Türkiye, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, have all condemned Israeli aggression and attacks on Iranian sovereignty. Most of them have even told the US that they would not allow their airspaces to be used in strikes against Tehran for fear of reprisals and becoming collateral damage. The distrust that they might be treated in the same way should they fall on the wrong side of the US-Israel combine, has also deepened. Tehran has also threatened to attack over two dozen US bases in the Middle East should the US join Israel in its war. This is the worry plaguing most Arabs today: they do not want to become a theatre of war.
Pakistan, though, has once again tried to become relevant, being the land of ‘mercenaries’ and the rentier state that it is. First, it threatened Israel in support of Iran, but just a few days later, its Field Marshal General Asim Munir was in the US for a rare lunch with the US President. If America decides to use Islamabad as a minion yet again, it’d be no surprise.
Russia , China and North Korea
Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has already spoken to Trump, offering to mediate between Tehran and Tel Aviv. That’s not an invalid proposition after all. While Moscow can handle Tehran, its strategic and security partner, the US can try to prevail upon Netanyahu, who has asked for American help. Moscow has also advised and warned the US to intervene militarily.
These, however, are just diplomatic hopes that may never actually come to fruition.
China on the other hand, which has significant geo-economic interests in the region, not only continues to criticise Israeli attacks but has also been reportedly providing assistance to the Iranian establishment. Its Foreign Minister, Wang Yi, was clear when he stated, “Israel’s actions violate international law. We cannot sit back and watch the regional situation slide into an unknown abyss.”
Even North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un has accused Israel of “state-sponsored terrorism”, calling it a “cancer-like entity”.
All these are indications that if the US does enter the war, these powers may intervene on behalf of Iran, and not only at the UNSC.
The Iranian Game Plan
The 86-year-old Khamenei, who has been ruling Iran conservatively for over 36 years, has remained intransigent so far, though in the face of Israel’s regime change threats and direct risk to his life, he has passed on his powers to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the military. He is said to be in some safe location, which Israelis and Americans claim they know about.
By now, it’s quite clear that Tehran failed to grasp the extent of the deep Israeli intelligence penetration in its country. It’s also certain that even though many in Iran are thoroughly disgruntled by their regime’s oppressive policies, that discontent is unlikely to work in Israel’s favour, for, in such times of external aggression, most countries and people unite against the aggressors.
Iranians have shown an intent to return to the table, and their Foreign Affairs Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has spoken to the EU, France, Germany and the UK, who have all favoured a non-nuclear Iran and a negotiated solution to end the war. The French are also against a regime change.
In any case, an unstable Iran could be perilous for the whole region as well as the world. Along with Houthis, Iran has been mulling closing the strategic choke points of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab, which will directly impact oil supplies from the region, which, by the way, accounts for over 20% of global crude trade. All regional actors, especially oil majors, are actively engaging in shuttle diplomacy to avoid the kind of outcomes Libya and Iraq had seen, which had fuelled regional headaches, uncertainty and the rise of extremism and terrorism.
Let’s hope Iran does not become another Iraq or Libya, where half-baked information or manufactured evidence led to a terrible disaster, whose reverberations continue to haunt the international community and US credibility to this day. Trump will have to be very, very careful about what he does next.
(The author is India’s former Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
